VIDEO SCRIPT CHAT GPT:

[Intro] Hello and welcome back! Brett here with Click Mill, and in this video, we will be discussing how to define the worst-case scenario when considering whether or not to pursue a ministry idea.

Fear is usually irrational, which is just part of human nature. It’s important to stop taking the bait and identify exactly what you are afraid of so that you can figure out what the worst-case scenario is.

Be aware that risk is only unwise when it is an uneducated risk. When you take educated risks, you are still using your ministry resources wisely.

Once you know your fear, ask yourself a series of questions:

1. Risk Reversal: What could I do to completely undo the negative consequences of my action?
2. Risk Mitigation: How likely is the worst-case scenario as a percentage? How likely is the best-case scenario as a percentage? (For example, 10% worst-case scenario, 20% best-case scenario, 70% in-between)
3. Risk Mitigation: Is the best-case scenario worth the risk of the worst-case scenario? (Suppose you had a 60% chance of losing $10 and a 10% chance of gaining $100, would you take the chance? I hope so. You are more likely to lose the bet on any given occasion, but statistically, you lose $60 dollars for every $100 you get. That’s a great deal.)
4. Risk Mitigation: What could I do before or after to mitigate the damage of my action?
5. Acceptable Risk: Am I willing and able to lose whatever the worst-case scenario will cost me?
6. Unacceptable Risk: If the absolute worst-case scenario occurs, will my ministry live to fight another day?
7. Risk Reward Ratio: Does the reward outweigh the risk? Is there an asymmetric opportunity to the upside? (Don’t take the risk for an even trade where the returns are the same as what you put in.)

Try implementing these questions to better understand the risks of any new ventures you are considering. Thanks for watching, and I’ll see you in the next video!

VIDEO NOTES:
When considering whether or not to pursue a ministry idea, define the worst-case scenario.

Fear is usually irrational, which is just part of human nature.

Stop taking the bait. Identify exactly what you are afraid of so that you can figure out what is the worst case-scenario is.

Be aware that risk is only unwise when it is an uneducated risk. When you take educated risks, you are still using your ministry resources wisely.

Once you know your fear, ask yourself a series of questions.

Risk Reversal: What could I do to completely undo the negative consequences of my action?

Risk Mitigation: How likely is the worst case scenario as a percentage? How likely is the best-case scenario as a percentage?
(10% worst-case scenario, 20% best-case scenario, 70% in-between)

Risk Mitigation: Is the best-case scenario worth the risk of the worst-case scenario? (Suppose you had a 60% chance of losing $10 and a 10% chance of gaining $100, would you take the chance? I hope so. You are more likely to lose the bet on any given occasion, but statistically, you lose $60 dollars for every $100 you get. That’s a great deal.)

Risk Mitigation: What could I do before or after to mitigate the damage of my action?

Acceptable Risk: Am I willing and able to lose whatever the worst-case scenario will cost me?

Unacceptable Risk: If the absolute worst-case scenario occurs, will my ministry live to fight another day?

Risk Reward Ratio: Does the reward outweigh the risk? Is there an A-symmetric opportunity to the upside? (Don’t take the risk for an even trade where the returns are the same as what you put in.)